A new study shows U.S. colleges may lose millions of students without international and immigrant-linked enrollment. Is higher education at risk?
The future of American higher education may heavily depend on a population that often flies under the radar: international students, immigrants, and their children. A recent report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) paints a sobering picture — if these groups were to vanish, the U.S. college system could shrink dramatically, putting not just institutions but also educational and economic ecosystems at risk.
To put it in perspective, by 2037, without immigrants and their families, the undergraduate population in U.S. colleges would be nearly 5 million students smaller than it was in 2022 — slashing enrollment by about two-thirds. At the graduate level, the numbers are equally alarming, with projections showing a loss of at least 1.1 million students — reducing the total population to just 60% of its current size.
The NFAP study stresses that this decline would be more than a numbers game. These students are vital to keeping colleges and universities open, especially in regions already seeing a decline in young adult populations. Institutions struggling with demographic downturns could be pushed to the brink of closure, and with them would go faculty jobs, local economies, and opportunities for U.S.-born students.
One of the biggest contributing factors to this looming crisis is a declining birth rate. Since the 2008 financial crisis, fewer children have been born in the U.S., and by 2025, this demographic shift will start reflecting in the college-age population. Between 2025 and 2029 alone, the number of U.S.-born young adults entering college could drop by 15%.
That’s where international and immigrant-linked students come in. They are not just supplementing falling numbers — they are holding up entire sections of the higher education system.
Here’s how the NFAP broke it down:
- If international students stopped enrolling in U.S. institutions altogether, undergraduate enrollment would fall by at least 2%, and graduate enrollment by 11% over the next decade.
- If no new immigrants entered the country, those drops would deepen.
- If all existing immigrants left the U.S., the decline would be even more severe — 6.6% fewer undergrads and 12% fewer graduate students.
- And if the children of immigrants stopped attending U.S. colleges, undergrad numbers would crash by nearly 23%, and graduate enrollment would drop by 16%.
These aren’t just hypotheticals — they point to a clear dependency on international and immigrant students. In the 2023–24 academic year alone, over 880,000 international students were enrolled in U.S. colleges, according to the Institute of International Education (IIE). That’s a 36% jump from 2010–11.
In an era of shrinking public funding for higher education, many universities rely on international students to balance their budgets. These students often pay full tuition, which helps institutions avoid raising fees for in-state students. Master’s programs in particular benefit from this trend, often using international student fees to subsidize other academic departments.
But the impact goes well beyond tuition dollars. International students are helping fuel the U.S. innovation engine. Many remain in the country after graduation, working in high-demand fields like technology and healthcare. About 23% of international master’s graduates stay and work in the same state where they studied. For bachelor’s students, the number is around 8%.
In fact, international students and immigrant graduates are a key pipeline for entrepreneurship. An astounding 75% of immigrant-founded U.S. companies that received venture capital backing were started by individuals who attended a U.S. college or university.
Optional Practical Training (OPT) — a program that allows international students to work temporarily in the U.S. after graduation — has seen a surge in participation. Over 242,000 students were enrolled in OPT during 2023–24, up from fewer than 41,000 in 2006–07. Changes to STEM-related OPT rules over the years have made it even more attractive for international students to stay and contribute to the U.S. workforce.
The pandemic caused a sharp dip in international student numbers, which likely cost the U.S. between 30,000 to 60,000 STEM workers. This highlights just how fragile and vital this student population is to America’s future.
Interestingly, the landscape of where international students are coming from is shifting too. India surpassed China in 2023–24 to become the top source of international students in the U.S., making up nearly 30% of the total, compared to China’s 25%.
As America grapples with questions of economic resilience, educational access, and global competitiveness, the answer might lie in keeping its doors open. International students aren’t just visitors; they’re an essential part of the country’s academic and economic heartbeat.
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